Will the seemingly endless current construction boom continue into 2001?
The signs point to "yes" - but for the first time in years, there are caution flags being waved that signal the good time times can't go on forever.

First, the good prognostications:

• The nation's current decade-long construction boom will continue "for the next several years" predicts FMI Corp. a construction management firm.
• Standard and Poor Chief Economist David Wyss said he believes the record expansion of construction activity in the U.S. still has left "at least one or two more years of good, solid growth."
• Robert Murray, vice president of economic affairs for the F.W. Dodge Division of McGraw-Hill, forecast that total U.S. construction activity will end up rising 3 percent this year to $461.7 billion, with another 1 percent increase in 2001.
• The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that only 8,107 construction workers filed for unemployment benefits with state agencies in the third quarter of this year - compared to 12,075 in the third quarter of 1999.
• The current expansion of construction work has been based on gradual, rather than explosive growth, which could mean the eventual downturn will be gradual, too. That's what Federal Reserve Board Chairman Alan Greenspan's "soft landing" is all about.

But…

• A headline in The Wall Street Journal last week said "the Midwest is in for a bumpy landing." The story went on to say, "many economists and business officials already are writing off 2001 as a transition year of little or no economic growth for the Midwest." They quoted Comerica Chief Economist David Littmann, "the damage is being done as we speak. And injury to the auto economy is getting worse."
• Indeed, other economist are looking at big industries to pick up on trends, and they don't like what they see. Layoffs of thousands of workers have been announced at Whirlpool, DaimerChrysler, Visteon, Delphi Automitive. Profits are way down at Ford and G.M.
• Wyss of Standard and Poor said to watch out for what's going on globally, including higher oil prices, the potential collapse of the European Dollar, the recession in Asia. Any of those things could turn around the industry very quickly.
• Manpower shortages could affect the industry. Labor supply along with technology, increased collaboration and partnering among construction users providers, and suppliers and industry consolidation are the most significant factors that will affect industry growth in the foreseeable future, the FMI study said.

There's good and bad in the economic forecast for 2001 and beyond, but all in all it's hardly time to circle the wagons - especially in the building industry. While there's some uneasiness about the general market, the analysts are still bullish on construction. Industry spending jumped 0.9 percent in October to its second-highest level on record, $756.9 billion. "For many construction companies…business is better than it has been for months," said the Wall Street Journal. Added economist Ian Shepherdson, "construction is incredibly strong."