Other numbers reveal what's at stake in election

The process of restoring balance to state government in 2002 will be a numbers game -and the stakes are high for Michigan's working people.

Before the votes are counted on Nov. 5, the most important number is registered voters - there are 6.9 million of them in Michigan, which amounts to about 58 percent of the voting age population. Which political party does the best job of getting its constituency out to the polls on Nov. 5 is, of course, crucial to the outcome.

On a statewide level, Republicans are hoping to retain the stranglehold they have held on state government since John Engler became governor in 1990. During that time, Republicans have always had the ruling majority in the state Senate, and only briefly have they relinquished power in the state House. And there are other local and statewide races that are as important, such as races for Congress, secretary of state, attorney general, and seats on the Michigan Supreme Court and Court of Appeals.

In the 2000 presidential election, 27 percent of Michigan residents who voted were union members, and 43 percent had a union member in their household. The same survey showed

Democrat Al Gore won 64 percent of the vote from union members in Michigan.

Those are historically high turnout numbers for Michigan union members, and labor leaders are hoping for similar participation from members this year.

By the numbers, following is a breakdown of some of the key candidates and issues in the Nov. 2 election:

One on one:

The head-to-head debates between Granholm and Posthumus earlier this month, plus all the ads and political literature, have illustrated some of the candidates' differences, but it also highlighted their similarities.

Granholm is the choice of organized labor because she has a record in words and deeds as state attorney general of standing up for the interests of working people - not big corporations. She has defended the state Prevailing Wage Act. She has vigorously opposed efforts to privatize Blue Cross Blue Shield. She has also continued Frank Kelley's tradition as attorney general of defending the interests of consumers.

With a huge state budget deficit looming, she's a realist - she has proposed a 5 percent decrease in each state department's budget. But she has pledged to temper the cuts with some humanity. "As we tighten our belts, we must not harden our hearts," she said.

Posthumus also has a public record, having been a state senator for 16 years before becoming lieutenant governor in 1998.

He voted against prevailing wage five times. He supports privatizing Blue Cross. He supported the controversial "waiting week" before laid off workers receive unemployment benefits. He has voted to tax unemployment benefits, and has voted to gut school employee collective bargaining. He sponsored four bills in 1987 that would protect the personal assets of corporate directors from lawsuits by shareholders.

The Michigan AFL-CIO said Posthumus has voted with working families only 5 percent of the time.

$1 billion. That staggering amount, or a little less, is the deficit in the state budget that will have to be met head-on by the incoming governor, whether it's Jennifer Granholm or Dick Posthumus. Neither candidate has talked much specifically about how they will reduce that deficit.

Whichever candidate wins, they will be walking into an instant fiscal headache left by Gov. John Engler, who implemented a plan to cover this year's budget by having state taxpayers pay their school taxes earlier.

23-15.

That's the margin by which the Michigan Senate is controlled by Republicans - and compared to the state House, it's seen as the best hope for Democrats to regain control of some legislative power in Lansing, besides the governor's chair.

To win a majority in the Senate, Dems will have to retain the 15 seats they have, and then win four more seats to at least gain a tie. If they tie, the lieutenant governor casts the deciding vote. Winning a majority in Michigan is doable, said Flint Sen. Bob Emerson, who heads the Democratic campaign committee.

"I think we've got 15 seats we consider safe," he said, "and in 10 races, polling shows we're ahead or within the margin of error." Republican campaign committee chief Ken Sikkema, told one of the daily newspapers, "we have to be optimistic about our prospects, but there are a lot of tight races. Usually three to five races are in play; here, there are as many as a dozen."

58-52. That's the margin by which the Michigan House of Representatives is controlled by Republicans. But due to redistricting in 2000, a process which was controlled by Republicans, it will be especially difficult for Democrats to gain seats in the House.

100 U.S. Senators. That's the number of lawmakers in the upper chamber of the U.S. Congress, and exactly half of them are Democrats. Dems control the Senate because there are 49 Republican senators and 1 Independent.

Michigan Sen. Carl Levin is on the ballot this year - but he is not expected to have much difficulty beating Republican opponent, Andrew Raczowski.

But there are several competitive senate races across the country, said Charles Cook, publisher of the Cook Political Report, a newsletter that tracks House and Senate races, and he said it's impossible to predict which party will earn a majority in the Senate

435 U.S. House Members. Currently, there are 223 Republicans and they control the House. There are also 210 Democrats and two independent in the House. Michigan will have 15 run-offs for congressional seats around the state, and only a few races are expected to be competitive.

Like the U.S. Senate, predicting which party will control the House is a toss-up. CNN Senior Political Analyst Bill Schneider says the House and Senate will continue to hold slim majorities after the Nov. 5 balloting. The election simply will determine which party will be in control.

"You could end up with a Democratic House and a Republican Senate," Schneider said. "That could happen, but it won't be a very big margin. We're not seeing any real tilt in the landscape."

Democrats need to pick up six seats in the House, but Cook said that's going to be difficult. "How does anybody score a net gain of a half-dozen seats when there are so few targets and pretty much balance in terms of vulnerability?" Cook said. "It's awfully hard."

Three Congressional seats. That's how many positions Republicans are likely to gain in Michigan as a result of redistricting. Democratic Congressman David Bonior, who saw that his district would be difficult to win because of redistricting, chose to run for Michigan governor. Slow population gains in Michigan compared to other states led to the loss of a seat in the U.S. House for our state. Republicans, who controlled the redistricting process, combined the districts of Democratic members of Congress John Dingell and Lynn Rivers - and Dingell won the primary election between the two.

Redistricting also led to the pending ouster of Democratic Congressman James Barcia. Instead of squaring off against Democratic Congressman Dale Kildee for the same seat, Barcia opted not to run for Congress this term.

Two Michigan Supreme Court seats. Two years ago, Democrats and Republicans spent a total of $16 million in a nasty campaign to put their favored candidates on the state's highest court.

The Republican candidates won - and this election year, although the seats aren't any less important, Dems and their supporters are not willing to make the same push.

Maggie Drake, a Wayne County Circuit judge, and J. Martin Brennan, a Rochester attorney, are the Democratic rivals to incumbents Elizabeth Weaver and Robert Young Jr., who are supported by the Republican Party and part of the current 5-2 voting majority.

The Republican-dominated Supreme Court has made it much more difficult for workers to win personal injury cases - or any lawsuits against businesses. The high court has made it especially difficult for workers to win workers' compensation cases. In many rulings they have ignored and overturned years of existing case law.

Ron Bretz, a professor at Cooley Law School and a former public defender, criticized the court majority of Weaver, Young, Stephen Markman, Maura Corrigan, and Clifford Taylor as the "gang of five" who carry out Engler's pro-insurance company, pro-big business bidding.

"I think this court is going to be seen in the future as one of the most radical courts we've had," Bretz said in a published report.

Proposal 02-1, Eliminate the "straight party" voting option.

Michigan voters have had the option of voting a straight party ticket for more than a century. One click of a lever, drawing of a single black line or the single punch of a chad has allowed Michigan voters to cast their ballot for an entire slate of either Democratic or Republican candidates. Under the guise of election reform, Republicans want to eliminate straight-party balloting, and complicate the process of voting.

Organized labor is urging voters to vote "No" on Proposal 1, because passage would increase voting time, create longer lines at polling places and make it more difficult for senior citizens to cast a ballot.

Proposal 02-2, is a measure to authorize bonds for sewage treatment works projects, storm water projects and water pollution projects

Passage would authorize the state to borrow not more than $1 billion dollars to improve the quality of our state's water by financing the above water projects. It provides for payment of the bonds from the state's general fund. Our members are encouraged to vote yes - $1 billion in new construction projects would be a boost to the construction industry.

Proposal 02-3, is a proposal to amend the State Constitution to grant state employees the constitutional right to collective bargaining with binding arbitration.

The proposal would give classified state employees the right to organize, require the state to bargain in good faith and extend the right to submit unresolved negotiating issues to binding arbitration 30 days after bargaining has begun.

The current state employee contract has been unilaterally changed over 100 times by the employer. This proposal would end that. A yes vote is urged - this is one way to bolster unions in Michigan.